Constellation Fulfillment Index — Current State
The OED Constellation Fulfillment Index measures the ratio of verified operational satellites (via Space-Track.org catalog) to announced constellation targets (per FCC ICFS filings and official company deployment plans). This is the single most objective measure of execution vs. ambition in the orbital economy. Updated weekly.
| Operator | Authorized | Operational | CFI % | Velocity | FCC Status | Next Milestone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starlink (SpaceX) | 19,000 | 8,355 | 44% | ~750/qtr | ON TRACK | 9,500 by Dec 2028 |
| OneWeb (Eutelsat) | 648 | 618 | 95% | 36/qtr | ON TRACK | Gen 1 complete Q1 2026 |
| Amazon Leo | 3,236 | 180 | 6% | ~45/qtr | AT RISK | 1,618 by Jul 30, 2026 |
| Iridium NEXT | 75 | 66 | 88% | — | COMPLETE | Gen 2 planning |
| Globalstar | 48 | 31 | 65% | — | ON TRACK | Apple D2C expansion |
| Lightspeed (Telesat) | 198 | 0 | 0% | 0 | BEHIND | First launch TBD 2026 |
| Rivada Networks | 600 | 0 | 0% | 0 | BEHIND | No manufacturer announced |
| SatRevolution | 1,024 | 2 | <1% | 0 | BEHIND | TBD |
The Starlink Moat Just Got 50% Wider
On January 13, 2026, the FCC authorized SpaceX to deploy an additional 7,500 Gen2 Starlink satellites, expanding the total approved constellation from approximately 12,000 to 19,000.3 Half of the new satellites must be operational by December 1, 2028; the remainder by December 1, 2031. This is the single largest expansion of spectrum rights in commercial LEO history.
The numbers in context: Starlink now has 11,100 satellites launched and 8,355 operational as of February 7, 2026.4 It comprises 65% of all active satellites in orbit.5 SpaceX launched 165 orbital missions in 2025, nearly three-quarters of them dedicated Starlink flights.6 The company hit 9 million subscribers in December 2025 and expanded Direct-to-Cell coverage to 22 countries with over 6 million monthly D2C customers.7
The next generation Starlink V3 satellites, designed for deployment on Starship, will provide over 1 Tbps downlink capacity per satellite — more than 10× the current Gen2 satellites.8 SpaceX is targeting mid-March 2026 for the first Starship V3 flight. If successful, this fundamentally alters the capacity economics of the entire LEO broadband market.
Amazon Leo's Math Problem
Amazon has launched 180 production satellites across 7 missions since April 2025.9 Its FCC license requires 1,618 operational by July 30, 2026 — a gap of 1,438 satellites in approximately 5.5 months. Even at the most aggressive launch cadence, this requires deploying ~260 satellites per month, which would demand roughly 8–10 launches per month across all contracted providers (ULA Atlas V, ULA Vulcan, SpaceX Falcon 9, Arianespace Ariane 6, Blue Origin New Glenn).
For context, Amazon's 8th mission — LE-01, the first on Ariane 6 — is scheduled for February 12, 2026, carrying 32 satellites.10 Amazon has disclosed 10 additional Falcon 9 contracts and 12 New Glenn contracts,11 but New Glenn has completed only 2 flights (1 full success, 1 partial), and Ariane 6 has completed 4 flights (75% success rate). The launch vehicle readiness of Amazon's diversified strategy is itself a risk factor.
The extension filing is the tell. Amazon's January 2026 FCC request to extend the July deadline acknowledges what CFI already showed: the deployment velocity does not match the regulatory timeline. Whether the FCC grants leniency — and at what cost — is the single highest-stakes regulatory decision in the space economy this year.
30 / 60 / 90 Day Watchlist
Events and catalysts that will materially move the Constellation Fulfillment Index in the near term.
CFI = Verified Operational Satellites (Space-Track.org orbital catalog, active transponder or active orbit maintenance confirmed) ÷ Total Announced Constellation Size (FCC ICFS filings, ITU registrations, or official company deployment targets). Updated weekly. Velocity measured as trailing 4-quarter average satellite deployments. FCC Status assessed against regulatory milestone deadlines. The CFI is one of five proprietary signal indices published by Off Earth Data. It is the only systematic, cross-operator execution tracking metric available to institutional investors.
Signal Flash Briefs are free, publicly available intelligence products from Off Earth Data. Each brief focuses on a single OED proprietary signal index and its implications for institutional investors. OED tracks 3300+ entities across 26 sectors and 110+ subsectors of the space economy through five signal indices: Constellation Fulfillment Index (CFI), Space Economy Revenue Decomposition (SERD), Government Contract Velocity Tracker (GCVT), Launch Insurance Premium Index (LIPI), and SpaceX Dependency Score (SDS). For full dashboard access and all five signals, visit www.offearthdata.com.
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